![]() ![]() World Appl Sci J 7(2):162–169Īdnan M, Khan F, Rehman N, Ali S, Hassan SS, Dogar MM, Mehmood S, Hasson S (2021) Variability and predictability of summer monsoon rainfall over Pakistan. Īdnan S, Mahmood R, Khan AH (2009) Water balance conditions in rainfed areas of Potohar and Balochistan plateau during 1931–08. Rising temperatures and high rainfall variability is an alarming sign for agriculture sector and food security of the region.Īditya F, Gusmayanti E, Sudrajat J (2021) Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in west Kalimantan. On contrary, models projected large variations in precipitation with no distinct trends in both eastern and western Potohar regions. Under business as usual RCP 8.5 emission scenario models projected increase of 3.9 ☌ and 4.0 ☌ in eastern and western Potohar region, respectively. Models under RCP 4.5 emission scenario projected average increase of 3.2 ☌ and 2.8 ☌ in eastern and western Potohar regions, respectively. Signficant rising temperature trends were simulated for the both sub-regions. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to check the significance and rate of trends in temperature and precipitation. The study area was splited into two sub-regions: The eastern Potohar region (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Jhelum) and the western Potohar region (Attock and Chakwal). ![]() This study analyzes the past (1981–2010) temperature and precipitation data and project future (2021–2100) changes in temperature and precipitation using CMIP5 models under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Future climate change is expected to further amplify food and livelihood insecurities. Abrupt changes in climate patterns lead to crop failures and adversely impact the livelihood of local communities. People in Potohar Plateau, a rainfed semi-arid region in Pakistan, largely depends on locally grown crops for their staple food requirements. The agriculture sector in semi-arid regions of the world is highly vulnerable to climate change. ![]()
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